Analyzing Intelligence

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Analyzing Intelligence


Edited by Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce
$29.95
ISBN: 9781589012011 (1589012011)
LC: 2007031706
Book (Paperback)

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Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysis must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building, and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft"), and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis.

"Intelligence analysts are accused of failing to connect the dots related to 9/11 and connecting the wrong dots related to Iraq. This important work provides the better understanding of analysis that is crucial for getting it right."—Joseph S. Nye Jr., Harvard University and author of The Powers to Lead

"This collection of essays is the most wide-ranging introduction to the vital craft of American intelligence analysis that has ever been published for the general audience of peers, scholars, and students. As editors, George and Bruce both exemplify and advance the professional standards they preach. Readers will find plenty of healthy self-criticism and recognition of problems. Yet readers may end up questioning some preconceptions of their own as they encounter essays that knock down some caricatures and corrosive myths that too often dominate contemporary discussion of intelligence issues." —Philip Zelikow, White Burkett Miller Professor of History, University of Virginia

"This impressive collection, by an unusually well-qualified array of practitioners, is unrivaled. It is the most comprehensive survey and investigation of the role, challenges, and quality of intelligence analysis, and its topical organization gets far past the basics and into the subtle aspects of the business. I wish I'd had it when I wrote my own book." —Richard K. Betts, director of the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University

"In Analyzing Intelligence, a distinguished and highly experienced group of experts offers penetrating insights into issues of intelligence analysis. Invaluable for the practitioner, the volume also clarifies the pitfalls and potential of intelligence for anyone interested in the subject." — Paul R. Pillar, professor of security studies, Georgetown University and former senior CIA official

"Analyzing Intelligence offers a sophisticated overview of the history, performance and practice of intelligence analysis. The contributors explore why good analysis is extraordinarily difficult and how changing threats, technologies, and expectations are shaping the intelligence profession." —James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches.

The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis.

Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.

Roger Z. George is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and is currently a senior analyst at the CIA's Global Futures Partnership. He is a career CIA intelligence analyst who has served at the Departments of State and Defense and has been the National Intelligence Officer for Europe. He has taught at the National War College and other private universities and is coeditor of Intelligence and the National Security Strategist: Enduring Issues and Challenges.

James B. Bruce is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He is a retired career CIA intelligence analyst who has served with the National Intelligence Council, within the Directorates of Intelligence and Operations, and has worked extensively with other intelligence community organizations. He has taught at the National War College and has authored numerous studies on intelligence and deception.

Michael Bennett, former officer, Central Intelligence Agency
Bruce Berkowitz, Hoover Institution at Stanford University and Georgetown University
James B. Bruce, Georgetown University and the RAND Corporation
Jack Davis, retired Central Intelligence Agency
Rebecca Fisher, writer, researcher, and librarian; Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency
John C. Gannon, Georgetown University, retired Central Intelligence Agency
Roger Z. George, Georgetown University and the CIA's Global Futures Partnership
John H. Hedley, former editor, President's Daily Brief and Chairman of CIA's Publication Review Board
Richards J. Heuer, Jr., retired Central Intelligence Agency
Rob Johnston, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency
Richard J. Kerr, former Acting Director and Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence and Security Academy, formerly assistant director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production, and former Staff Director of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
John McLaughlin, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; former Acting Director and Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Carmen A. Medina, CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence
Timothy J. Smith, Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)
James B. Steinberg, Dean, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin; former Deputy National Security Advisor to President Clinton
David Thomas, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), and Institute of World Politics Gregory F. Treverton, RAND Corporation's Center for Global Risk and Security, former vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council